GLOBAL MELTDOWN
The catalogue of disasters that are happening right now
Across the planet, rising temperatures are taking their toll
CARBON DIOXIDE
New research has found that levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere - the main cause of global warming - are higher than at any time in the past 625,000 years. HOTTEST EVER
This year is expected to be the warmest ever recorded; 1998 was the hottest so far, but the past three years currently occupy the next three places.
DESERTIFICATION
The giant Kalahari desert, already four times the size of Britain, threatens to become larger still, covering farmland in Namibia, Botswana and South Africa.
EXPANDING OCEANS
The level of the world's seas and oceans is rising twice as fast as in the past, as their waters expand in rising temperatures and glaciers melt.
OCEAN EXILES
The people of the Carteret Islands, a scattering of atolls off Papua New Guinea in the South Pacific, have started to leave as their homes succumb to rising seas.
HURRICANES
Hurricane Epsilon - the 14th of the year - is forming in the Atlantic, even though the worst recorded hurricane season by far formally ended on Wednesday.
GLACIER MELT
Greenland glaciers have suddenly started racing towards the sea and melting. Much the same is beginning to happen to glaciers in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
WATER SHORTAGE
Areas such as the western USA, which depend on mountain snows for their water supplies, are running short as less snow falls - and what does fall melts earlier.
DISAPPEARING SPECIES
Sealife and birdlife have declined catastrophically this year along America's north-west Pacific coast, after a similar meltdown in the North Sea.
CORAL REEFS
Corals on the Great Barrier Reef are bleaching out and dying as sea temperatures rise and scientists fear that the whole reef may perish by 2050.
Also in this section
For local action see Community.Urban Greening
Excerpt from:
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division 1
World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2003/2003WUPHighlights.pdf
World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision, prepared by the United Nations department of Economic and Social Affairs' Population Division, presents estimates and projections of urban and rural populations for major areas, regions and countries of the world for the period 1950-2030. It also provides estimates and projections of the population living in urban agglomerations for the period 1950-2015 and the population of all capital cities in 2003. The 2003 Revision updates the estimates and projections issued in the 2001 Revision.
Almost all population growth expected for the world in the next thirty years will be concentrated in the urban areas. The smaller urban settlements (with fewer than 500,000 residents) of the less developed regions will be absorbing most of this growth. Mega-cities, like Tokyo, Mexico City and New York will continue to dominate the urban landscape in some countries, but the majority of the urban dwellers will be residing in the smaller cities.
Key findings of the 2003 Revision are:
1. The world's urban population continues to grow faster than the total population of the world. As a consequence, about 3 billion people or 48 percent of humankind is now living in urban settlements. The majority of all urban dwellers lived in smaller urban settlements, while less than 5 per cent of the world population was living in mega-cities.
2. The world's urban population is estimated at 3 billion in 2003 and is expected to rise to five billion by 2030 (table 1). The rural population is anticipated to decline slightly from 3.3 billion in 2003 to 3.2 billion in 2030.
3. The urban population reached one billion in 1960, two billion in 1985, and three billion in 2002. It is projected to attain 4 billion in 2017 and 5 billion in 2030 (table 2).
4. Forty-eight per cent of the world's population lived in urban areas in 2003. It is projected to exceed the 50 per cent mark by 2007, thus marking the first time in history that the world had more urban residents than rural residents (figure 1). The proportion of the population that is urban is expected to rise to 61 per cent by 2030 (table 3).
5. During 2000-2030, the world's urban population is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.8 per cent, nearly double the rate expected for the total population of the world (almost 1 per cent per year) (table 1). At this rate of growth, the world's urban population will double in 38 years or in about half a lifetime of a person.
6. Population growth will be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.3 per cent per year during 2000-2030 (table 1). Migration from rural to urban areas and the transformation of rural settlements into urban places are important determinants of the high urban population growth anticipated in the less developed regions.
7. Almost all the growth of the world's total population between 2000 and 2030 is expected to be absorbed by the urban areas of the less developed regions (figure 2). By 2017, the number of urban dwellers will equal the number of rural dwellers in the less developed regions (figure 3).
8. In contrast, the urban population of the more developed regions is expected to increase very slowly, from 0.9 billion in 2003 to 1 billion in 2030. The average annual growth rate of this population is expected to be 0.5 per cent between the 2000 and 2030, compared to 1.5 per cent recorded during the previous half-century (table 1).
9. The process of urbanization is already advanced in the more developed regions, where 74 per cent of the population lived in 2003. The proportion of the population living in urban areas is expected to increase to 82 per cent by 2030 (table 3). The share of the population that is urban is lower in the less developed regions: 42 per cent in 2003, and expected to rise to 57 per cent by 2030.
10. There are marked differences in the size of the urban population and the proportion urban among the major areas of the world. In 2003, the combined number of urban dwellers in Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern America and Oceania (1.2 billion) is smaller than the number in Asia (1.5 billion), one of the least urbanized major areas of the world. By 2030, Asia and Africa will each have more urban dwellers than any other major area, with Asia alone accounting for over half of the urban population of the world (table 4).
11. Latin America and the Caribbean is highly urbanized, with 77 per cent of its population living in urban settlements in 2003. This proportion is twice as high as those for Africa and Asia. With 39 per cent of their populations living in urban areas in 2003, Africa and Asia are expected to experience rapid rates of urbanization during 2000-2030, so that by 2030, 54 per cent and 55 per cent, respectively, of their inhabitants will live in urban areas. At that time, 85 per cent of the population of Latin America and the Caribbean will be urban (table 5 and figure 4).
12. In Europe and Northern America, the percentages of the population living in urban areas are expected to rise from 73 per cent and 80 per cent, respectively, in 2003, to 80 per cent and 87 per cent in 2030. The increase in Oceania is likely to be from 73 per cent to 75 per cent over the same period (table 5).
13. The proportion of people living in mega-cities (urban agglomerations of 10 million persons or more) is small. In 2003, 4 per cent of the world population resided in mega-cities; by 2015 this share is expected to rise to around 5 per cent. Almost 3 per cent of the world population in 2003 lived in cities with 5 million to 10 million inhabitants, rising to nearly 4 per cent by 2015 (table 6 and figure 5). About 25 per cent of the world population and over half of the urban population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants (table 6).
14. In the more developed regions, nearly 40 per cent of the population lived in small urban settlements. This is about twice that in the less developed regions, where just over 20 per cent of the population lived in small urban settlements (table 6).
15. With 35 million inhabitants in 2003, Tokyo is by far the most populous urban agglomeration. (The population estimate for the Tokyo urban agglomeration was raised considerably in the 2003 Revision due to a new definition of metropolitan areas that comprises a greater number of cities and towns than previously associated with Tokyo.)
16. After Tokyo, the next largest urban agglomerations in the world are Mexico City (18.7), New York-Newark (18.3), São Paulo (17.9) and Mumbai (Bombay) (17.4). In 2015, Tokyo will still be the largest urban agglomeration with 36 million inhabitants, followed by Mumbai (Bombay) (22.6), Delhi (20.9), Mexico City (20.6) and São Paulo (20) (table 7).
17. The number of cities with 5 million or more inhabitants is projected to rise from 46 in 2003 to 61 in 2015. Among these, the number of mega-cities (with 10 million inhabitants or more) will increase from 20 in 2003 to 22 in 2015. Most of these large cities are in developing countries. In 2003, 33 of the 46 cities with 5 million inhabitants or more were in less developed countries, and by 2015, 45 out of 61 cities are expected to be from the less more developed regions (figure 6).
18. Large urban agglomerations are not necessarily experiencing fast population growth. Of the 20 megacities identified in 2003, almost half experienced population growth below 1.5 per cent between 1975 and 2000 and just 6 grew at rates above 3 per cent (table 8): Dhaka in Bangladesh (6.2 per cent per year); Lagos in Nigeria (6.1); Delhi (4.1), Karachi (3.7) and Mumbai (Bombay) (3.1) in India; and Jakarta in Indonesia (3.3). Between 2000-2015, 11 mega-cities are projected to experience population growth below 1.5 per cent and five will remain with population growth rates above 3 per cent.
19. Related to the trends described above, three-fourths of all Governments report that they are dissatisfied with the spatial distribution of their populations (table 9). Developing countries (79 per cent) are more likely than developed countries (65 per cent) to report dissatisfaction.
20. Developing countries are also more likely to have adopted policies to ameliorate spatial distribution. For example, almost three-quarters of developing countries have enacted policies to reduce the flow of persons moving to metropolitan areas, but only 12 per cent of developed countries have done so. Over the last 50 years, the world has witnessed a dramatic growth of its urban population. The speed and the scale of this growth, especially concentrated in the less developed regions, continue to pose formidable challenges to the individual countries as well as to the world community. Monitoring these developments and creating sustainable urban environments remain crucial issues on the international development agenda.
Definition of: urban population [code 151]
"Because of national differences in the characteristics that distinguish urban from rural areas, the distinction between urban and rural population is not amenable to a single definition that would be applicable to all countries. National definitions are most commonly based on size of locality. Population which is not urban is considered rural. "Major urban areas" in HIV/AIDS reporting are not uniquely defined but correspond approximately to cities identified in United Nations Population Division World Urbanization Prospects, 1999, chapter VIII "All areas" estimates, where available cover all urban and rural areas."
Definition of: urban agglomeration [code 150]
"Comprises a city or town proper and also the suburban fringe or thickly settled territory lying outside, but adjacent to, its boundaries. A single large urban agglomeration may comprise several cities or towns and their suburban fringes. See also city."
Source of Definition: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cdb/cdb_list_dicts.asp
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